By now, everybody has come across the news that FY20 GDP has come to multi-year lows at 4.2% and 4QFY20 GDP at 3.1% – what people won’t be aware of the fact that this 3.1% has the effect of 1-week domestic lockdown – only. Imagine what would be the effect of 2 whole months’. So, the point of this blog is to see how India is facing the worst of both worlds – a declining economy and rising cases of Corona Virus. Now, since I am not a virologist, I will focus on the economy in detail and touch on the virus part.
1. Coronavirus cases rising at lower rates – But, rising.
At the current point, the growth rate in active cases stands at 5% (1week moving average) which has come down substantially from the April highs of 20% and recovery rates are at 42% compared to 26% in April. But, issues remain about proper management of the post lockdown mobility. Till May, most of the population was in their houses except for essential services. When the lockdown gets lifted, the scenario and the outcome are untested and there’s very much a chance that the cases can see a rise. If this happens (hope it not) can India afford another lockdown? Absolutely not – let’s explore why in the next section.
2. A declining economy
Even prior to Covid, Indian economy was shrinking at a constant pace. Multiyear high GDP levels transformed to multi year lows (Chart 1) while eight core sector output and Industrial production (IP) saw data points never seen before (Chart 2 & 3). This sluggishness has stagnated the employment levels and going forward, there will be unprecedented levels of unemployment – which India can’t afford with high level of job seeking young population.
With over 1.90 lakh cases, India now 7th worst-hit nation and still we are all learning to live with corona now by taking all possible precautions and resume to our respective works. This phase of lock down is more towards the unlock of different stages of operations. Calling it “Mission Begin Again”, the government allowed all markets, market areas and shops, except malls, to function from June 5 on odd-even basis even as cases in the state crossed 65,000. This will exclude containment zones.
The Centre plans to unlock all the economic activities in a phased manner, beginning with the opening of restaurants and malls on June 8. Though the lockdown 5.0 will last till June 30, it is only in containment zones. Also, the night curfew hours for areas outside these zones have been revised to 9 pm to 5 am from the earlier 7 pm to 7 am.
Therefore, MRCOG aspirants should also bring themselves up and study accordingly. RCOG would be conducting the exam in September (possibly). Be the part of our webinars, recordings of the webinars would be given only to the enrolled candidates.
For More Information:
Email: crackingmrcog@jaypeebrothers.com
Whatsapp: +91-9873886225
Website: www.crackingmrcog.com
© Jaypee Brothers Medical Publishers
1. Coronavirus cases rising at lower rates – But, rising.
At the current point, the growth rate in active cases stands at 5% (1week moving average) which has come down substantially from the April highs of 20% and recovery rates are at 42% compared to 26% in April. But, issues remain about proper management of the post lockdown mobility. Till May, most of the population was in their houses except for essential services. When the lockdown gets lifted, the scenario and the outcome are untested and there’s very much a chance that the cases can see a rise. If this happens (hope it not) can India afford another lockdown? Absolutely not – let’s explore why in the next section.
2. A declining economy
Even prior to Covid, Indian economy was shrinking at a constant pace. Multiyear high GDP levels transformed to multi year lows (Chart 1) while eight core sector output and Industrial production (IP) saw data points never seen before (Chart 2 & 3). This sluggishness has stagnated the employment levels and going forward, there will be unprecedented levels of unemployment – which India can’t afford with high level of job seeking young population.
With over 1.90 lakh cases, India now 7th worst-hit nation and still we are all learning to live with corona now by taking all possible precautions and resume to our respective works. This phase of lock down is more towards the unlock of different stages of operations. Calling it “Mission Begin Again”, the government allowed all markets, market areas and shops, except malls, to function from June 5 on odd-even basis even as cases in the state crossed 65,000. This will exclude containment zones.
The Centre plans to unlock all the economic activities in a phased manner, beginning with the opening of restaurants and malls on June 8. Though the lockdown 5.0 will last till June 30, it is only in containment zones. Also, the night curfew hours for areas outside these zones have been revised to 9 pm to 5 am from the earlier 7 pm to 7 am.
Therefore, MRCOG aspirants should also bring themselves up and study accordingly. RCOG would be conducting the exam in September (possibly). Be the part of our webinars, recordings of the webinars would be given only to the enrolled candidates.
For More Information:
Email: crackingmrcog@jaypeebrothers.com
Whatsapp: +91-9873886225
Website: www.crackingmrcog.com
© Jaypee Brothers Medical Publishers
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